Brother Blogs

In the last 10 months

When the 2ndlook blog started, 10 months ago, the beginning was tentative – and I didn’t know where to start with. Too many threads and very little structure.

As the posts started etting written, the 2ndlook blog took a life of its own, and there has been progress. In the first months there were a 200 readers. These days, everyday, nearly 200 readers reach the blog.

Some readers have been kind enough to give suggestions. Based on these suggestions there are now 2 brother blogs – Quicktake and StPTBarnum.

Both these blogs appear in the Blogroll – so you can click and start reading.

Quicktake

As the name suggest is simple, quick snappy look at news, happenings, events, books – which may have an ‘in-built load’. The idea is to decode these in a pithy short manner. For more info and details, 2ndlook blog is the place.

PT Barnum

As you know, the pope has kindly consented to consider PT Barnum for canonization. The papal college is expected to convene soon. The beatification process has started. I have been appointed as the devil’s advocate. So, if any of you know why PT Barnum should not cannonized, please get in touch with me!

I have already received enough information of the miracles that he brought about – and especially in the area of propaganda. It is proposed, that St.PT Barnum be declared as the Patron Saint of Propagandists.

Propaganda practitioners are elated at the prospect of having their own Saint – at long last.

The 2ndlook blog has been good till now – and all of you readers have made that experience a great one.

Misplaced Victimhood

Kapil Sibal made a private visit to Mumbai to talk to a gathering of around 200 Muslims. It was an honest attempt to understand why Muslims are feeling so insecure, ignored and alienated. In the gathering were two maulanas. When it was their turn to speak, both broke down, cried like children and could not continue. On September 18, the Mumbai edition of only one national daily published a picture showing minister for minorities affairs A R Antulay crying, with Sibal and another Union minister, Ram Vilas Paswan, trying to console him. The caption did not say why the minister, a Muslim, was crying. Why do you think he was crying, liberal Indian? (Hey, you liberal-Subverse-Opinion-The Times of India).

Javedbhai …

While you are busy accusing the media of selective amnesia, there are 4 aspects of Indian system which you are either ignorant of or possibly you suffer from amnesia yourself! Either be specific as this article is, which shows cases where the system has failed - or if you are being general, some balance is essential.

1. India has the lowest prison population in the world – bar none. At 250,000-350,00o for a population of 110 crores, it is remarkable achievement in crime management. Why not talk about this?
2. India has also the lowest police-to-population ratio in the world. So, India does not qualify for being a ‘police state’ either. No go!
3. Just like Muslims are being detained ‘illegally’ by the police, so are ‘Hindu’ naxalites and Christian ‘extremists’ in North East. So this does not wash either.
4. India has the largest Muslim minority in the world – and in fact the 3rd largest Muslim population in the world. Unlike many other countries of the world, the Muslim population in India is increasing. So, no Muslim pogroms! Bad luck, Brother Javed!

Causes and Effects

Now MJ Akbar (reportedly) pointed out the ‘probable’ problem – the ‘loss of Muslim leadership’, from emigration to Pakistan and the West. From being the ‘rulers of Hindustan’, if Muslims are asking for reservations, it is misplaced sense of victimhood being fanned by a ‘motivated’ and ineffective leadership.

The Indian Dalits are an excellent role model – for all minorities. From being at the bottom of the ladder (possibly due to colonial perversions in Indian society), I am looking forward to the Mayawati becoming the Prime Minister of India. In another few years, we will see no need for any reservations – unless, some minorities decide to stake a claim for benefits that were earlier meant for the Dalits. In the new Bombay Parsi Panchayat elections, some candidates have promised that they will ‘fight with the Government’ for reservations for the Parsi community.

Another set of role models are the Bollywood Khans. Gone are the days, when Yusufbhai had to become Dilip Kumar to succeed. Now (possibly) the Kapoors and Kumars are wanting to become Khans. Salman Khan in a recent interview said that due to his prosecution in the poaching case, possibly, the Chinkara (Black Buck) has made a come back in the wilds of Rajasthan. Salman did not lay down and die – or start crying like the ’sobbing maulanas’ and you are! He did not allege that the ‘Hindu’ state was out to get him!

Some faith and more हरकत (‘harkat’) can do wonders, Javedbhai. There is nothing wrong with India.

Find something real or someone else to blame, Javedbhai!

China And India – 2 Books, Two Views, Take a 2ndlook

The India China Relationship

To most in India, China is possibly the biggest defence threat and is a ‘feared’ competitor.

However, the 2ndlook blog has discounted the ‘threat of the Chinese dragon’ based on an active engagement with China – and not benign neglect.

No less than Arun Shourie has weighed in on the ‘Chinese threat’ side of perception. This puts the 2ndlook blog in a minority. In the 2ndlook blog dated May 31st 2008, there was a significant analysis of the China-India face off. More on that later.

Two Books – Opposite Themes

In the meantime, Arun Shourie’s book has evoked scant interest – excerpted below.

… important parallels, as Shourie points out, between the situation pre-1962 and the situation now. Border talks are regressing, Chinese claims on Indian territories are becoming publicly assertive, Chinese cross-border incursions are rising, and India’s China policy is becoming feckless … India has always been on the defensive against a country that first moved its frontiers hundreds of miles south by annexing Tibet, then furtively nibbled at Indian territories before waging open war, and now lays claims to additional Indian territories. By contrast, on neuralgic subjects like Tibet, Beijing’s public language still matches the crudeness and callousness with which it sought in 1962, in Premier Zhou Enlai’s words, to “teach India a lesson”. (Stagecraft and Statecraft: Lessons for today’s India from the 1962 Chinese invasion).

The lack of coverage in Indian media for an important book like this is a matter of concern. At the same time, another book on a similar subject, from an American perspective is vastly different – and closer to the views of the 2ndlook blog.

This one, … (by) Ms Shirk (former deputy assistant secretary of state who dealt with China) … should become a must read for every Indian who cowers and cringes at the very mention of China. For, as Shirk shows, there is no reason to do so. The core of her message is that only one thing has changed over the last two decades: instead of being a paper tiger, China has become a cardboard tiger.

… recall how China responded to the Tibetan uprising just before the Olympics to get a sense of its vulnerabilities and the resultant paranoia. The Chinese embassy in New Delhi was surrounded by three rings of defence against attacks by Tibetan women. You don’t become a super power merely because you have some money and some guns.

the Chinese leadership no longer has to fear the foreign devil who speaks English; it has to fear the average Chinaman who does so. She also shows how there is no shortage in the variety of unrests in China: you name a type of discontent, and it is there. But unlike India, China has not had the sense to develop political outlets for the head of steam that is building up. The only way it knows of dealing with mass discontent is repression.

Shirk also deals with the aspect that the Chinese leadership is most anxious to hide: a split not in the ranks of the party, but in the highest echelons of the leadership. And the second- and third-level Chinese leadership knows this. The drive against corruption, for example, when mayors are hanged, is seen as just a tea leaf, a straw in the wind that the big boys are pulling in opposite directions.

contrary to popular belief, especially in India, China can’t get along with anyone. Japan, Taiwan, Korea, India all have difficulties with a neighbour whose word can’t be trusted and who tends to rely more on strong-arm tactics than diplomacy. This, too, seems to be a part of the Communist party repertoire, merely their way.

As we see in this book, when push comes to shove, China always backs down. Its leaders simply don’t have the stomach for a confrontation because they don’t know how it will turn out for them personally. That’s the key thing: the personal interests of the Chinese communist leaders. It now always comes before the country’s interests, or is at least seen as being coterminous with it. (Book Review of FRAGILE SUPERPOWER by Susan L Shirk).

The Chinese Paper Dragon

The Chinese success is similar story. Much like USSR’s break-up, the Chinese monolith is more fragile than apparent. Apart from the usual suspects of democracy, economic disparities, social upheavals, etc, there are 3 factors, which most Chinese analysts miss.

One, the Tibetan’s are held together by force – and no one imagines that this holding them together by force, can be in perpetuity. The Muslim provinces of Xinjiang (another one-third of China) is usually ignored. These issues are usually minimized by the current strength with which China holds these provinces together.

But possibly, the biggest issue is the share of revenues of the Chinese central governments.

Secondly, the Chinese Central Government commands less than 25% of the total tax revenues - and the 75% goes to provinces. This, possibly is why the Chinese Government cannot reduce cigarette usage in China. Most expenditures on health, education, pension, unemployment, housing etc. are borne by the local government – and hence there is patchwork of systems which run across China. Most of executions and imprisonments of bureaucrats (including the Mao’s Cultural Revolution) is to demonstrate central authority. The PLA is the only factor that keeps China together. A Chinese Lech Walesa or a Nelson Mandela could unwind China very quickly.

Significantly, and thirdly, the Chinese diaspora and Western MNCs are biggest investors in China – and also the main beneficiaries. This currently keeps resentments of the local Chinese under control – as the neighbour is not getting much richer. But at one stage the domestic Chinese will want to greater say and control over the Chinese economy. He may not be happy with just a well paying job and abundant, low quality goods.

India vs China

On these three counts India scores significantly better than China. India’s problems with Kashmir are a British legacy, an external creation – as is the North East problem, to a degree. India’s significant issue (probably temporary) is the Naxalite problem. India’s central Government has greater control and share over total revenues – than the Chinese. India’s recent economic and political successes are entirely home bred – with the exception of remittances from the expat workers in the Middle East.

2ndlook blog proposes a different way out of this India-China stalemate.

The Detritus

As various colonial powers were forced out of various colonies, left behind was the garbage of colonialism. This post-colonial debris has become the ballast, that is dragging down many newly de-colonized countries. And it is the stereotypes and images of each other that seem to be determining the relationships between the two countries.

Vietnam suffered from a prolonged war (1956-1976) – and finally peace had a chance after 20 years of war. Korea remains divided. The Cyprus problem between Turkey, Greece and the Cypriots has been simmering for nearly 100 years. The role of the Anglo Saxon Bloc, in Indonesia, the overthrow of Sukarno, installation of Suharto and finally the secession of East Timor is another excellent example. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1935 onwards) will soon enter its 75th year. The entire Arab-Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a creation of the Anglo-French-American axis. The many other issues in the West Asia and Africa are living testimony of the Western gift to the modern world.

Closer home is the Kashmir problem. After 60 years of negotiations, India-Pakistan relations have remained hostage to the Kashmir issue. Similarly, between China and India, the border issues remain 60 years after the eviction of Britain from India.

We Hereby Resolve

Let us (India and China) decide that for the next 60 years, these legacy border issues will remain in cold storage! There are far more pressing issues that need our attention. Let us focus on those issues. We have a lot of catching up to do.

Real Reasons For The Unclear Deal

Democrat chairman of the house foreign affairs committee and non-proliferation hard-liner Howard Berman continued with his negative tactics and introduced a new version of the nuclear deal bill in the House Representatives that would be unacceptable to India. The Berman bill also has a killer provision on Iran that links India’s cooperation on Iran to the nuclear agreement, sources said. – (N-Deal: Berman introduces killer amendment, in Economic Times, dated 26 Sep, 2008, 0439 hrs IST, ET Bureau)

My post dated , September 20, 2008,123 Agreement – What Manubhai Does Not Tell Us, But Hurts Us talked about what could be the real reason why the US is so eager to do this deal with India. Iran with its Iran Oil Borse is a significantly determined effort to shake up the dollar hegemony. And that is something that has the USA rattled. No question!

With the 123 Deal – or without it, India will get the technology. That is not in question. It is another question whether India can at all partner with Iran to establish an alternate world currency (system).

So, my friends at the ET bureau, please note that the ‘negative tactics’ by Howard Berman are really desperate measures – to save the dollar hegemony.

Catholic monarchs in Britain? Wowee

Justice Minister Jack Straw said in March that the government was “certainly ready to consider” reviewing the “antiquated” ban on Catholic monarchs.

Rules laid out in the Bill of Rights 1688, the Act of Settlement 1700 and the Act of Union 1706 state that the monarch must be a Protestant, and any royal who marries a Catholic is barred from the line of succession. (from’Britain mulls allowing Catholic monarchs: report in Hindustan Times)

Wow! This is indeed a major step for ‘multi-cultural’ Britain! I am so highly impressed!

Now that this Catholic issue is resolved, what happens to Presbyterians, Methodists, Calvinists, Quakers, Seventh Day Adventists, Mormons, Lutherans, Greek Orthodox, Russian Orthodox, Armenian Orthodox, Serbian Orthodox, Baptists, Jehovah’s Witnesses, The Episcopal Church? Are they not Christian enough?

What if Prince Harry marries a Buddhist?

Does the ‘modern State Of Great Britain differentiate between people based on choice of faith made 7 generations ago? Are people of different faith not ‘people’ enough?

What was the reason for Tony Blair to convert to Catholicism? Is that ‘dog-whistle’ religiosity with a unified Christian army against the ‘evil forces of Islamic Fundamentalists?’ Jeb Bush, brother of George Bush has already converted to Catholicism – and will George Bush follow?

Daniel Burke writes Washington Post thus,

Bush attends an Episcopal church in Washington and belongs to a Methodist church in Texas, and his political base is solidly evangelical. Yet this Protestant president has surrounded himself with Roman Catholic intellectuals, speechwriters, professors, priests, bishops and politicians. These Catholics — and thus Catholic social teaching — have for the past eight years been shaping Bush’s speeches, policies and legacy to a degree perhaps unprecedented in U.S. history.

Nixon Chop And Bush Whack

The Bush Era Balanced Score Card

The Dollar-Oil Tango

From the Nixon Chop to the Bush Whack, in the final months of Dubya’s Presidency, the Bush Family has been in the Presidency for 12 years of the 37 years. And in positions of lesser power for the entire period. George Bush Sr. was the US representative to the UN during the Nixon era – when Nixon made his infamous remarks to Kissinger about the ’sanctimonious Indians’ who had pissed on us (the US) on the Vietnam War’. George Bush Sr. was also with the CIA and the US Vice President during the 8 years of Reagan Presidency.

During these 37 years – between the Nixon Chop (1971) and the Bush Whack (2008), the world has changed significantly.

Every Few Years

Every 10-25 years, the world seems to go from one financial crisis to another. Trucks full of economic analysis follow each crisis – and everyone agrees after each meltdown, that there will not be another catastrophe. What the poor (and not so poor) economists don’t see is that the Anglo Saxon bloc with 80% of the world’s gold production in a choke-hold does what it wants. And the second element – they also control and influence 80% of the Oil production.

Why has this system been such a failure? Simple!

Oil & Dollars

After the Nixon Chop, the OPEC went into a huddle. After all they were selling a limited resource against payment through pieces of paper. After the Nixon Chop, the chain of events, post 1970 developments were as follows: -

The international monetary developments as of 15 August 1971 prompted OPEC, in its meeting in Beirut on 22 September 1971, to call for negotiations with the oil companies holding concessions in member countries. By 14 January 1972 there was no progress in negotiations. OPEC, in spite of a total loss of more than 11.5%, was asking for a hike of only 8.57% –- which was the loss in value of the US dollar relative to gold. In fact, what OPEC was asking for was very close to what the International Maritime Conference had, at the time, announced: a minimum increase in the dollar freight rates of 8.6%. Finally, an agreement was reached in Geneva on 20 January 1972 that provided an immediate increase in the posted prices by 8.49%. The settlement also included provisions for further adjustments until 1975 based on an index that reflected changes in the dollar and other key currencies.

Concurrently, on October 17th 1973, OAPEC members (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) announced embargo against shipping oil to all countries supporting Israel in the the ongoing Yom Kippur War against Syria, Egypt and Iraq – i.e. the United States, Western Europe, and Japan. Non Arab OPEC members decided to leverage their power to raise world oil prices, after the failure of negotiations with the Oil Companies (then popularly called “Seven Sisters”).

The targeted countries responded with a wide variety of new, and mostly permanent, initiatives to contain their further dependency. Europe tied with Russia for the trans-Europe gas pipeline. North Sea Oil production was ramped up. Norway and other countries also increased their output. Thus while not fully dependent on the OPEC, this served an important purpose – to demonstrate that the West and OPEC were on opposite sides, whereas the truth was opposite.

OPEC and West – Partners In Loot

Actually, the West saw a transfer of wealth, all over again from the Third World, via the OPEC Petro Dollars. The dollar regime was significantly beneficial to the Western World in general – and US in particular. The Oil dollar linkage allowed the US to create global reserves with other countries of US$6 trillion in just foreign exchange reserves. Other debt and trade add upto another US$14 trillion.

Approx US$20 trillion is the amount of dollars that the OPEC has managed to transfer from the Third World to the West. But the unhappy outcome of the Oil Crisis of the ‘73 (for the West) was the riches and power of the Arab countries. What followed was a rising crescendo of Islamic Demonization for the last 37 years.

Oil output is currently over-valued as Western producers and OPEC jointly rig up prices. The Rest of the world pays (recently its is largely India and China) – and pays in dollars which again benefits the West.

The West limits its own output to keep up the prices. OPEC has the advantage of high oil prices. The petro dollars are reinvested back in the West. Finally, OPEC gained – and so did the West.

Who paid!

Mostly poor Indians and Chinese. And even poorer Africans.

Bush Whacked

War, Oil , Dollars & The Middle East

The justifications for invading Iraq given by the USA, were finally found to be false. The invasion was finally not related to 9/11. Iraq did not have any WMDs either. So, what was were the reasons for Iraqi invasion?

A ring side observer, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq, Ranjit Singh Kalha’s book, ‘The Ultimate Prize’ makes some interesting observations on the genesis of the Iraq invasion.

“The first mistake Saddam made was when he decided in October 2000 to move away from using US dollars as the currency for oil exports, …under the UN ‘oil-for-food’ programme.” Saddam also converted Iraq’s USD 10 billion reserve fund from US dollars to Euros. “Although this act of Saddam was not of very great economic significance in overall terms, it represented for the United States a direct challenge to the use of the dollar as a currency for transactions,” … in his just-released book, “The Ultimate Prize”. Iran followed Saddam’s move and Venezuela started initiating barter deals outside the dollar system. “If most other Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) followed the Iraqi and Iranian example, the stability of the US dollar would be at stake,” Kalha, who was posted in Baghdad during the tumultuous 1992-94 period, says.

Sidelined to the (Indian) National Human Rights Commission, Kalha’s book was also buried under a mound of silence, not reviewed and made no impression in the popular media. One press release by PTI was recycled by The Economic Times, Outlook, Sahara Samay, The Hindu, India Today, and NDTV. Google and Live Search hardly turned up anything. Yahoo.co.in showed some these links.

Bush Whacking Iraq

Iran and Venezuela followed Iraq and also moved away from designating oil sales in US dollars. After the Bretton Woods-I collapse, instead of gold, it was oil that anchored the US currency. West Asian Oil producers agreed to denominate oil in dollars after the Nixon Chop – and in turn there was no real resistance by the West to OPEC oil cartel increase oil prices by a factor of 10.

Western Oil companies also acted in concert with OPEC by limiting their own oil production. From around 4 dollars a barrel to US$40. The West was relatively unscathed – as these petro-dollars were re-invested back in the West. Europe managed to insulate itself with the North Sea Oil (Britain, Norway were the main producers along with Germany and Denmark. Europe also concluded a deal with Russia for a pipeline into Europe. North Sea Oil Production peaked in 1999-2000 with a 6 million barrels per day.

India was also not highly impacted as Bombay High started production in 1974. It was the rest of the Third World which paid this bill.

Bretton Woods – I & II

As Ron Paul noted,

“The agreement with OPEC in the 1970s to price oil in dollars has provided tremendous artificial strength to the dollar as the preeminent reserve currency. This has created a universal demand for the dollar, and soaks up the huge number of new dollars generated each year.”

The Bretton Woods-I system worked for from 1945-1971 (26 years) years because Indians were not allowed to buy gold. India’s finance minster during that crucial period, Morarji Desai, (allegedly on CIA payroll during Lyndon Johnson’s Presidency 1963-1968), presented a record 10 budgets, between February 1958, up to 1967.

Bretton Woods-II, based on oil-dollar anchor, worked for another 35 years (1973-2008) till now. Oil exploration is a 5-10 year investment. Oil should be made another commodity. An easy option is to create a Republic of Pacific Islands – Haiti, Cuba, Grenada, and other West Indies. These islands can become vast oil production centres – that will help them raise their economies and can feed Asia with oil, peacefully.

The third currency bloc is essential – and it can happen only if India and South Africa decide to make it happen.

What Now, Ben?

The whole world seems to be blaming Ben Bernanke for the USA dollar crisis. Is it fair? Look at his record below.

Thus Spake Ben Bernanke

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C. November 21, 2002 (ellipsis mine)

U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press … that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. … …the Fed could find other ways of injecting money into the system–for example, by making low-interest-rate loans to banks or cooperating with the fiscal authorities … If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation.

A terse anouncement by the Federal Reserve Board said,

“On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.

On November 10, 2006 Ben Bernanke justified,

“As I have already suggested, the rapid pace of financial innovation in the United States has been an important reason for the instability of the relationships between monetary aggregates and other macroeconomic variables.”

Ben Bernanke has given ample (and more) indications about what he will do. In fact, more than indications, he was brazen enough to say, what exactly he would do! How can the world blame him now?

What Did Others Do

Some other countries tried feebly, and failed, in creating a third currency bloc as an alternative to the US dollar and the Euro. Japan and ASEAN tried setting up the Asian Monetary Fund – after 1997, currency crisis – and were arm twisted by the US to drop the idea. Malaysia proposed The Gold Dinar in 2002-2003. This was initially limited to the Islamic World only. Neither of the proposals got far.

What would be the US reaction to this such attempts?

War, Oil , Dollars & The Middle East

Cut to the Iraqi invasion by the USA.

The justifications for invading Iraq given by the USA, were finally found to be false. The invasion was finally not related to 9/11. Iraq did not have any WMDs either. So, what was were the reasons for Iraqi invasion?

A ring side observer, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq, Ranjit Singh Kalha’s book, ‘The Ultimate Prize’ makes some interesting observations on the genesis of the Iraq invasion.

“The first mistake Saddam made was when he decided in October 2000 to move away from using US dollars as the currency for oil exports, …under the UN ‘oil-for-food’ programme.” Saddam also converted Iraq’s USD 10 billion reserve fund from US dollars to Euros. “Although this act of Saddam was not of very great economic significance in overall terms, it represented for the United States a direct challenge to the use of the dollar as a currency for transactions,” … in his just-released book, “The Ultimate Prize”. Iran followed Saddam’s move and Venezuela started initiating barter deals outside the dollar system. “If most other Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) followed the Iraqi and Iranian example, the stability of the US dollar would be at stake,” Kalha, who was posted in Baghdad during the tumultuous 1992-94 period, says.

Sidelined to the (Indian) National Human Rights Commission, Kalha’s book was also buried under a mound of silence, not reviewed and made no impression in the popular media. One press release by PTI was recycled by The Economic Times, Outlook, Sahara Samay, The Hindu, India Today, and NDTV. Google and Live Search hardly turned up anything. Yahoo.co.in showed some these links.

Bush Whacking Iraq

Another post which made waves was posted in currencytrading.net – which highlighted how some countries were possibly moving away from the dollar peg or /and diversifying dollar reserves.

These 7 countries were Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China, Venezuela, Sudan, Iran and Russia. Venezuela and Iran have already moved away from designating oil sales in US dollars.

The only plausible reason why US worked so hard to get the 123 Agreement for India was to keep India (and hence, South Africa also) away from any third currency bloc efforts – for some time at least .

Let The Games Begin

In the last 5 years, more than US$10 trillion were printed and the world is awash with dollars. Where did this money go? How was this used?

“Lendings by US commercial banks in the period 2000 to 2004 soared by altogether USD 1,500bn to USD 6,750bn. In the European Monetary Union lending to the private sector by monetary financial institutions (MFI) climbed from roughly EUR 6,200bn end-1999 to not quite EUR 8,700bn at the end of last year.” - Allianz Report, Dresdner Bank.(Links mine)

The recipients of this largesse, mainly Western banks have made (it is whispered) bad loans worth 300-400 billions dollars. I am confident that the actual figure is much higher.

The loans story does not end there.

These loans were in turn sold and re-sold, then packaged and mortgaged, derived and contrived - finally ballooning into the ‘sub-prime’ crisis. Are these welfare payouts by another name? Who will pay for this “lending”? US Consumers are not repaying their housing loans.

Some one has to!

What's Happening Helicopter Ben?

The Federal Reserve & Ben Bernanke

From March 23, 2006, information regarding M3 data was no longer published. The US printing presses started working 24 x 7 x 365.

From there it was a short step away to predict a financial crisis. Nouriel Roubini started off with an estimate of US$1 trillion to US$2.7 trillion write offs. Charles Morris wrote a book, “The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash”.

Yet $1 trillion is the amount of defaults and writedowns Americans will likely witness before they emerge at the far side of the bursting credit bubble, estimates Charles R. Morris in his shrewd primer, “The Trillion Dollar Meltdown.” That calculation assumes an orderly unwinding, which he doesn’t expect. “The sad truth,” he writes, “is that subprime is just the first big boulder in an avalanche of asset writedowns that will rattle on through much of 2008.” wrote Roubini.

Asians Are Funding the US

Total US debt has crossed 300% of GDP (all sectors). What this means is that if every income earning member of the US were to assign 30% of their income, every year, for the next 25 years (at current interest rates and borrowing rates), US debt will come to possible close to zero level. Government debt in comparison to GDP is fluctuating between 50% to now nearly 100%. Some claim that the debt burden is actually declining.

Who is stuck with this hoard of dollars – getting devalued daily. China (with more than 2 trillion dollars), Japan (another trillion dollars), Russia (400 billion dollars), India (300 billion dollars) are the top 4 countries.

Asia lost last year (my estimate) more than US$300 billion dollars due to the monetary policy of the USA. Deliberate, well thought out monetary policy by the USA Government.

The truth is that American lifestyle is being maintained due to Asian stupidity. The Chinese, Japanese, Indian, and other ASEAN countries have lent the USA – which is in the hock by over, US$4 trillion dollars. They will lose US$ 400 billion for the privilege of lending US$4 trillion to the USA. They designate trade in US dollars worth another few trillion dollars a year – which is zero-cost-to-US depreciating currency ‘float’ that the US benefits from.

The Big Mac index (based on two simple ideas of PPP and a standard industrial product) shows the dollar is overvalued against most currencies of the world. This over-valuation range is about 53% in case of India. What that means is that the US pays India only half the amount of what it should actually pay. And India pays double for whatever it buys from the USA.

The Tail That Wags The Dog

Kenichi Ohmae made his reputation with many books at the height of the Japanese boom – holding forth to spell bound audiences on the ‘miracles of Japanese management.’ One of his interesting observations was the quantification of currency trading – which he saw as a positive. “As Kenichi Ohmae observes in his book The Borderless World, the “tail” of foreign exchange trading has in recent years vastly outgrown the original “dog” (Money Meltdown, By Judy Shelton, Page 104).

Living upto his reputation, ” Kenichi Ohmae, nicknamed “Mr. Strategy” during his 23 years as a McKinsey & Co. partner, called for a $5 trillion “international facility” to be made available to financial institutions.” as a solution to the 2008 US-dollar crisis.

What has happened as a result of unsustainable policies (simultaneous budget and current account deficits, and loose monetary and fiscal policies) in the US is that a huge liquidity bubble of $7-10 trillion has caused massive inflation in global prices for all asset classes: property, stocks, commodities, etc. – Percy S Mistry / New Delhi February 28, 2008 (bold letters mine).

The ICBC IPO received subscriptions of half a trillion dollars! IMF estimates of funds with Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) is US$2-3 trillion – and “foreign assets under management of SWFs could reach US$6–10 trillion by 2013“. The same IMF study also estimates that global financial assets are currently valued at US$190 trillion. Commodity prices are going through the roof.

Very soon, major movements will be measured in trillions – thanks to the humongous printing presses, that the US has used in the last few years. Daily trading volumes total US$1.5 trillion in the Forex Markets. To that add trading volumes of debt markets, stock markets and commodity markets. Combined global trading volumes now cross US$3.0 trillion – and growing. This degree of hysterical trading had made the US$ into a giant wrecking ball – which goes out of control very few years.

To overcome this crisis, Kenichi Ohmae says it will require another US$ 5 trillion. The bill for US$ 62 trillion of CDS (Credit Default Swaps) write downs, has just started coming in. Credit card debt of another US$ 10 trillion has just started.

Does George Bush Even Know How Many Zeroes In Trillion?

How Many Zeroes In A Trillion?

Does Dubya know?

To put it in perspective. The whole of India, produced last year, goods and services worth US$1 trillion. And the US – US$14 trillion.

Did banks lend out 7-10 trillion US$ in doubtful loans (Why didnt I get any of this?)? Who will pay the price for this? How will this get financed? Can we continue running the world financial system like this?

123 Agreement – What Manubhai Does Not Tell Us, But Hurts Us

“We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow” Lord Viscount Palmerston, 1848

Story Till Now

The 123 Agreement and the NSG waiver for Nuclear trade with India, has raised a lot of heat and dust – within India and abroad. MJ Akbar (on 21st September, on Times Now, News Channel), described this deal as ‘more unclear than nuclear.’

Within India, the opposition BJP Party was supported by the ex-ally of the ruling Congress party. PM Manmohan Singh (Manu for readers of this blog) staked his personal standing for this deal.

The Indian and US Governments have been touting this deal as something that will end power shortages in India, reduce green house emissions, lower electricity costs.

The opposition BJP sees this as a sell out of India’s sovereignty. The Leftist CPI(M), an ex-ally of the ruling party, claims that this is the start of an strategic relationship with US – an undesirable partner. Independent Indian analysts claim that the US has an hidden agenda of re-energising its ‘moribund nuclear industry.’ Independent Western analysts claim that this will give a boost to India’s weaponization program.

Almost all of these miss the main motivations, both Indian and US, for pushing this deal.

Cost of Nuclear Power

Our own Manubhai has been promising the Indians that India will be a power surplus and /or a power-full country – thanks to his 123 Nuclear Deal! Now, everyone who knows something about nuclear energy, knows that this is not true.

At one end of the spectrum, on the true cost of nuclear power, an analyst, Bharat Karnad writes, “…if you thought Dabhol electric power at Rs7-8 per unit was scandalous, wait for electricity units priced at Rs.30 or more.” This is based on a reactor cost of US$9-10 billion. Another writer estimates “Areva is pitching the new EPR reactor design … earning between €2.5bn and €5bn for each reactor” … Florida utility Progress Energy’s estimate of $14 billion for two AP-1000 designed by Westinghouse (…translates … to … $6,000/kW) … imported nuclear reactors will produce electricity at costs that would be simply unaffordable.”

The US experience with nuclear power is similar. A study confirms, “commercial nuclear power from new nuclear plants has become the most expensive form of commonly used baseload electric power in the United States.” Independently, US plans to refurbish old reactors that, “The Tennessee Valley Authority plans to reopen … Browns Ferry 1 nuclear reactor this month – 22 years after it was shut …after spending … $1.8 billion on the overhaul – almost as much as a new plant is supposed to cost …The last one was Watts Bar 1, also a TVA plant, in Spring City, Tennessee, in 1996.”

NPCIL Executive Director Sudhinder Thakur maintains:

“The cost in France and the US and the cost in India are vastly different. The purchasing power parity index is also applicable to nuclear reactors. When you build a reactor here, costs come down dramatically.”

Giving credence to Mr.Thakur and also the various analysts ranged against him, adopting median estimates of lower reactor costs, will still make electricity from nuclear energy at the higher end of the price spectrum.

Low electricity generation costs as the raison d’etre, doesnt cut any ice – not now, not with me, at least!

India’s Nuclear Weaponization

Karat ot this call wrong!

For making weapons grade plotonium, the cost of CANDU reactors is much lower- as is also the cost of India built Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR). So India’s need for reactors to make weapons grade plutonium is not a feasible reason for the deal.

India today does not need to go anywhere for any reactors for production of weapons grade plutonium. If the technology denial regime continues for another 5-10 years, India will anyway, re-invent a better wheel, at a lower cost – and best of luck to France, which today has the best re-processing technology.

We don’t want to have the world’s largest inventory of nuclear bombs. We are not paranoid. Complex answers and conditionalities for something easily remedied.

Can we make life simpler, please!

Indo-US Strategic Relationship

India is the long-term, single-most and credible competitor for US economic, technological and political influence in the world. US will do nothing to dilute its own position and importance. All strategic engagements of the US are with small countries like Japan, Taiwan, UK, Singapore, etc. China and Russia are seen by the US as competitors and rivals – and, while currently not seen as in the same league, India is definitely on the horizon.

Opposition by the Indian Left to this deal, springs from their belief, that the deal will bring India closer to the US, is totally off the mark. “The Communist Party of India (Marxist) on Saturday accused the government and the Congress leadership of mounting a “massive disinformation campaign” to push the nuclear deal, which “is a cover to promote strategic ties with the U.S.”

BJP is against the deal because they feel this treaty undermines Indian freedom (and sovereignty) to conduct nuclear tests. Nothing is possibly further from the truth. India can do all the tests it wants to – and come back to status quo ante - the current regime of technology and resource denial.

Intellectual vacuity is best demonstrated in this post by Gurcharan Das, an ex-MNC CEO, who started writing in various newspapers. His latest post in The Times Of India, plumbs the depth of misdirected warmth towards Western democracies. He writes, “thanks to the treaty, which paved the way for closer ties with the Western democracies. The West stood by India during its times of trouble and eventually India went on to balance power in Asia and the world”.

Gurcharan Das’ gullibility on matters of international relations is worth a bucketful of tears. Why would any country (let us keep Western powers aside for a minute) support India (or any other country) – except if it in their self interest? After 300 years of pillage, loot, murder, genocide, slavery are Western nations going to suddenly change and become Good Samaritans, Mr.Das?

Your naivete, Shrimaan Das, makes me squirm.

What is the specific US interest that the US has that India will meet!

None, that Pakistan cannot do with fewer qualms, at a lesser cost and no questions. So, why has the US dumped its old ally, Pakistan for this nuclear deal. Pakistan is not going to get the nuclear deal. So, why is the US doing this deal with India! For a Indo-US strategic relationship?

Give me something better. I am willing to wait.

Indian Reasons For The Nuclear Deal

India’s reasons for the 123 deal are fairly straight forward. The main reason for India agreeing to go for the 123 Agreement.

India’s expectation is to use thorium as an energy source in the long run. If the first phase of our programme is limited to 10,000 MW of PHWRs, the rate at which Fast Breeder Reactors can be built will be quite low. On the other hand, if the first phase programme can be augmented with LWRs of 20,000 to 30,000 MW by 2030, we shall have a strong base of Fast Breeder Reactors to be able to launch thorium utilisation in a significant way in the decades thereafter.

Bombay High, Cairn-Rajasthan, Reliance- KG Godavari, GSPC-KG Basin, ONGC-KG Basin oil fields will take care of 60%-80% of India’s oil requirements from 2010-2030. India needs better energy sources after 2030. Thorium based energy systems make sense.

Simple.

US Interests

So, what is the US interest in engaging India in the nuclear deal? I would even say, diverting India’s attention by dangling the nuclear carrot!

The US does not need any allies – especially in this part of the world. Ex-SEATO allies, (now the ASEAN), are spread all over Asia. Most Middle East rulers are allied (maybe reluctantly and some eagerly) with the US. Closer home, Pakistan brought China and US together in 1973. Pakistan also helped the US to get Russia out of Afghanistan. So, US has no need for a ‘difficult’ ally like India.

There is some speculation that the US wants to use India for reviving their “moribund nuclear industry.” But even before the first RFP for the first plant, Bush is doing everything to kill US business propects. His ‘secret letter’ clarifies that US assurances were “political commitments” and not “legally binding.”

Excerpt from Bush’s letter to Congress: “In Article 5(6) the Agreement records certain political commitments concerning reliable supply of nuclear fuel given to India. The Agreement does not, however, transform these political commitments into legally binding commitments because the Agreement, like other US agreements of its type, is intended as a framework agreement.”

President Bush and the US industry know that they are getting nowhere close to any business with India without “legally binding commitments” on fuel supplies.

Washington Post quotes Tarun Das, of CII,

“France and Russia “come at the head of the queue for business contracts from the nuclear deal now,” Das said. “But let us not forget it is a very, very long line behind. And Americans and others are the long line behind.”

Srinivasan, former Chairman of AEC, said,

“We expect the assurances on fuel supply from the potential US reactor vendors as per the 123 Agreement (a bilateral agreement between India and US) before they enter into a contract with Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL).”

So, the US Nuclear industry is also not the motivation for this deal.

There! You have it. India wont buy and the US wont sell.

What Gives – Iraq, Iran, Venezuela

Cut to the US invasion of Iraq.

The justifications for invading Iraq given by the USA, were finally found to be false. The invasion was finally not related to 9/11. Iraq did not have any WMDs either. So, what was were the reasons for Iraqi invasion?

A ring side observer, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq, Ranjit Singh Kalha’s book, ‘The Ultimate Prize’ makes some interesting observations on the genesis of the Iraq invasion.

“The first mistake Saddam made was when he decided in October 2000 to move away from using US dollars as the currency for oil exports, …under the UN ‘oil-for-food’ programme.” Saddam also converted Iraq’s USD 10 billion reserve fund from US dollars to Euros. “Although this act of Saddam was not of very great economic significance in overall terms, it represented for the United States a direct challenge to the use of the dollar as a currency for transactions,” … in his just-released book, “The Ultimate Prize”. Iran followed Saddam’s move and Venezuela started initiating barter deals outside the dollar system. “If most other Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) followed the Iraqi and Iranian example, the stability of the US dollar would be at stake,” Kalha, who was posted in Baghdad during the tumultuous 1992-94 period, says.

Now sidelined to the (Indian) National Human Rights Commission, Kalha’s book has been buried under a mound of silence, not reviewed and made no impression in the popular media. The one , same press release by PTI was recycled by The Economic Times, Outlook, Sahara Samay, The Hindu, India Today, and NDTV. Google and Live Search hardly turned up anything. Yahoo.co.in showed some of these links. Iraq was finally not related to 9/11 and did not have any WMDs. So, what was were the reasons for Iraqi invasion?

The Dollar Hegemony

After Iraq, Venezuela and Iran have also moved away from designating oil sales in US dollars. After the Bretton Woods collapse, instead of gold, it was oil that anchored the US currency. West Asian Oil producers agreed to denominate oil in dollars after the Nixon Chop – and in turn there was no real resistance by the West to OPEC oil cartel increase oil prices by a factor of 10. Western Oil companies also acted in concert with OPEC by limiting their own oil production. From around 4 dollars a barrel to US$40. The West was relatively unscathed – as these petro-dollars were re-invested back in the West.

India was also not highly impacted as Bombay High started production in 1974. It was the rest of the Third World which paid this bill. As Ron Paul noted, “The agreement with OPEC in the 1970s to price oil in dollars has provided tremendous artificial strength to the dollar as the preeminent reserve currency. This has created a universal demand for the dollar, and soaks up the huge number of new dollars generated each year.”

Another post which made waves was posted in currencytrading.net – which highlighted how some countries were possibly moving away from the dollar peg or /and diversifying dollar reserves.

“…seven countries currently considering a move from the dollar” Saudi Arabia refused to cut interest rates along with the US Federal Reserve … a break from the dollar currency peg … South Korea announced its intention to shift its investments … There are whispers that the Bank of Korea is planning on selling $1 billion US bonds in the near future, after a $100 million sale … After abandoning the dollar peg in 2005, … China is threatening a “nuclear option” of huge dollar liquidation … although China “doesn’t want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order,” … As … noted in the past, China has the power to take the wind out of the dollar.

Venezuela … choosing to establish barter deals for oil … under Hugo Chavez, … to trade oil with 12 Latin American countries and Cuba without … the dollar … In 2000, Chavez recommended to OPEC that they “take advantage of high-tech electronic barter and bi-lateral exchanges of its oil with its developing country customers,” … In September, Chavez instructed Venezuela’s state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA to change its dollar investments to euros and other currencies …

Sudan is … planning to convert its dollar holdings to the euro and other currencies. … Officially, the (US) sanctions are reported to have little effect, but there are indications that the economy is suffering due to these restrictions. … a Khartoum committee recently concluded that proposals … are “not feasible.” …it is clear that Sudan’s intent is to attempt a break from the dollar in the future.

… the most likely candidate for … abandonment of the dollar…Iran requested that … shipments to Japan be traded for yen … has plans in the works to create an open commodity exchange called the Iran Oil Bourse. … possible to trade oil and gas in non-dollar currencies, … the oil bourse has missed at least three of its announced opening dates, … make clear Iran’s intentions for the dollar. As of October 2007, Iran receives non-dollar currencies for 85% of its oil exports … has plans to move the remaining 15% to currencies like the United Arab Emirates dirham.

… 2006, Russian President Vladmir Putin expressed interest in … a Russian stock exchange … allow “oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for in Roubles.” … wary of holding too many dollar reserves. In 2004, Russian central bank First Deputy Chairmain Alexei Ulyukayev remarked, “Most of our reserves are in dollars, and that’s a cause for concern.” … considering the dollar’s rate against the euro, … “discussing the possibility of changing the reserve structure.” … 2005, Russia put an end to its dollar peg … towards a euro alignment. They’ve discussed pricing oil in euros, … a large shift away from the dollar and towards the euro, … (by the) world’s second-largest oil exporter.

The dollar’s status as a cheaply-produced US export is a vital part of our (US) economy. Losing this status could rock the financial lives of both Americans and the worldwide economy.

The game is afoot. We are onto something here.

The Iran Bourse

So, that is the real reason. Maintaining US Dollar hegemony – which Iran wants to wreck. As a large oil exporter, Iran can start the beginning of the end.

Soon after the Dubya-Manu Nuclear Deal announcement, India voted against Iran at the IAEA Meet. Iran was always of strategic importance to India – as a counterweight to the China-Pakistan axis. India has given up on Iran for (in MJ Akbar’s words) a more unclear than nuclear deal.

Interestingly, the CPI(M) website, People’s Democracy, on March 2005, posted an exhaustive write up on the US dollar and its effect on the world economy. Surprising that they did not connect the dots – or is that they are part of the Manubhai and Co.? Have decided that the Indian people do not deserve the truth?

For the Iran Bourse to take off, Iran can go to two countries in the world – US or India. Not even Europe. (Europe’s main interest is to increase acceptance of the Euro. The danger is that US and EU could form a duopoly and revert to ‘rent-seeking’ behaviour).

The Iran Bourse has one choice – for the hardware, software, systems, procedures, regulatory experience. For proof, look at the MCX, a privately developed, owned, funded, managed, commodity exchange – a first in the world. India is opening up electronic markets at the drop of a hat. India’s home-grown regulatory systems are today world class.

All the above seven countries mentioned in the report above have thin democracies or not at all. The regulatory systems in these seven countries are primitive and arbitrary. A body of professional market participants these countries don’t have. The central banks in these countries are adjuncts of a temporary political leadership. Hence, any kind of administrative predictability or reliability is chimerical.

Who Can You Trust

The US needs to maintain the US Dollar hegemony – as that gives it an advantage of 20 trillion dollars of interest free, irredeemable debt! This US need, for India to be out of this alternate currency system scenario – is what is driving this nuclear deal.

How far, how much would how many countries (rich or poor) in the world trust these seven countries (Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China, Venezuela, Sudan, Iran and Russia) with the future currency system of the world?

Practically none!

For these proposals of an alternate currency bloc to come close to realization, the presence of India (and South Africa) is an essential. India’s other qualification is the 25,000 tonnes of private gold reserves. Iran has not helped its cause when it tried re-negotiating the gas supply agreement with India.

As usual, no one in India is even remotely talking about this issue. And that is the tragedy of Indian economists.

Post Script

But I may be completely off the mark. The Indian Government may be marching to the beat of a different drummer altogether.

India on 27th August, 2008, concluded an agreement with ASEAN for goods now – and more later. Is this a first step from both sides to have a comprehensive third currency bloc? There may be merit in being prepared, being safer rather than being sorry – and failures, like many other attempts have been.

Manubhai, Motor Chali …Pum … Pum … Pum

कीस्मत तेरे तीन नाम, परसी परसु परसराम

OK! Here we go!

Some reader reactions to my blog on India’s Pakistan Fixation! Some outraged readers came back saying that I am an apologist for an India, which is standing up! Another wrote back that I was a sheep in sheep’s clothing (that one hurt, OK!). Some patronisingly, reacted with allegations how I had come unstuck. After all, how could I fault India in the Indo-Pak relations imbroglio.

Let us give the devil his due! So, assume Pakistan is the bad apple. To be fair, let us examine India’s brilliant record with India’s other neighbours.

Nepal

Nepal

Nepal is the world’s only Hindu country. We have a special relationship. Indians trust Gorkhas with their banks, buildings, borders – everything. Majority of Indians and Nepal share the same religion and Indian currency is also freely acceptable in Nepal. Nepalis are for all purposes Indians – and Indians enjoy a special status in Nepal. This is even as “most Nepalese regarding India-Nepal relations as one between dajubhai (brothers).”

Inder Malhotra, a respected political commentator, blames “traditional anti-India sentiment” of the Nepalese elite for the renewed demands to end the peace treaty.

Major General Ashok K Mehta (retd), makes something of his experience with Gurkhas and Nepal. Speaking for himself he says,

“For someone who has spent a lifetime with the Gurkhas of the Indian Army and walked 30,000 kms through the length and breadth of Nepal, I should understand…

Being Himalaya-locked, the Nepalese have gravitated only south for succour and salt. They have become conditioned to blaming India for their ills, frequently motivated by the ruling establishments and its adversaries and more lately, by external forces. So when there is a drought, floods, cholera, or a price rise, Nepalese usually hold India responsible. Proximity not just familiarity, breeds contempt though it is generally ignorance…

Regardin reasons for…

‘recent anti India demonstartions, he continues, ” So with the Nepali Congress now in power, what has sparked off the Hrithik Roshan riots? Take your pick from among these — the ISI, Maoists, other Left parties, the palace, a carry-over of the Bombay underworld, infighting in the Nepali Congress and the party’s crucial Pokhara convention next week, even China and spontaneity.

As for Nepal, it wants to eat the cake and have it too.” (Ellipsis , italics mine).

India is seeing spies under their beds, ghosts in every nook and corner. Another ‘think tank’ writes,

“China’s political leaders are visiting Nepal. Pakistan and China already have a working coalition against India. Current Government of Bangladesh and the homegrown jihadists are probably more anti-Indian than Pakistan. And now we learn Nepal is having a close door session with Pakistan!

Bangladesh

In 1971 India ‘liberated’ Bangladesh from Pakistan. The Bangladeshis are now supposed to live for all eternity in gratitude to India. Any sign of independence from the Bangladeshis is also a sign of ‘ingratitude.’ How dare the Bangladeshis try and become ‘independent’ of India?

A journal from another Indian ‘think tank’ writes,

“Since its inception, Bangladesh has been suffering from an identity crisis…Like most of the countries born through a revolution, good governance has eluded Bangladesh. The country is today characterized by extreme poverty, rampant corruption, overpopulation, violent political culture, growing Islamic fundamentalism and politicised armed forces.

The big brother syndrome with respect to India looms very large on Bangladesh ’s security horizon and therefore its threat perceptions are perhaps more imagined than real. While to India , Bangladesh is one of the seven neighbouring countries; for Bangladesh , India is the only major neighbour. Therefore, there is a tendency to exaggerate apprehensions or fabricate threats from India . This has given rise to an anti-India lobby within the Bangla populace and polity, which has severely impaired and inhibited some mutually very beneficial cooperative proposals and ventures between the two countries…

it would be logical to infer that till Bangladesh emerges as a stable, prosperous and confident nation, it will continue to consider India as its perennial and pervasive adversary.”

Another analyst from another think tank drops his pearls of wisdom,

“Bangladesh is conscious of the fact that its territory is being used by Pakistan’s ISI, Al Qaeda and other insurgent groups for anti-India activities. India has cautioned Bangladesh on this count. The significance of Indian military escalation in 2002 against Pakistan would not have been lost on Bangladesh… (The report continues) …

Analytically, it would not be too simplistic to suggest that Pakistan has had a role in egging on Bangladesh towards a full strategic embrace with China and also facilitating it. General Musharraf’s visit to Bangladesh in October 2002, his tentative apology for the 1971 Pakistani genocide of the Bengalis and the mutual discussions centering around Pakistan’s perceptions of India’s military escalation would have helped in Musharraf’s exaggerating Bangladesh’s strategic concerns.

Another Indian, Sudha Ramachandran writes in the Asia Times Online,

“New Delhi has been drawing attention to the presence of anti-India militant training camps in Bangladesh and the growing fundamentalist extremism there.

The growing role of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in training anti-India militants based in Bangladesh has worried Delhi for some time now. India’s Border Security Force director general, Ajai Sharma, told the media in September that there were “firm reports” that the ISI had set up new training centers for terrorists in Bangladesh. “The terrorist groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir are also being trained there … It [ISI] is now fully concentrating in Bangladesh,” he said.”

Sri Lanka

Srilanka is possibly the only country where we have been there and done that. From the 1991-boycott of the SAARC Summit, India has travelled a distance. A Srilankan analyst writes,

“While India-Sri Lanka’s relations have improved quite significantly in the 1990s along with changes in political personalities as well as regimes in both countries, Sri Lankan governments have also moved closer towards Pakistan in situations where the relations with India had suffered setbacks. In the mid-eighties, President Jayewardene sought to improve cooperation with Pakistan, indicating that that measure of cooperation could have entailed Pakistani military assistance to Sri Lankan government to fight the Tamil secessionist rebels. In 1999, in a somewhat similar development, President Chandrika Kumaratunga sought and indeed obtained direct Pakistani military assistance when the LTTE rebels threatened to re-capture the Jaffna Peninsula. There was also explicit displeasure among Colombo’s official circles that India in 1999 refused to come forward to Colombo government’s rescue with military assistance. Thus, Sri Lanka’s turning to Pakistan for military assistance has had a complex logic with implications for relations with India.“

The Neighbourhood

Where does this leave India? Indian analysts have often drawn attention ad nauseum to

China’s encirclement of India, its deepening engagement with all of India’s neighbors. This encirclement has now increased with huge Chinese involvement in Gwadar port in Pakistan, ports in Myanmar and now Hambantota in Sri Lanka. China’s “string of pearls” is tightening around India, says a former Indian intelligence official, referring to the string of bases in Asia in which China has a presence.

India is, of course, blameless, spotless, and responsible for all the good things that are happening in the neighbourhood. All negative developments are due to the others. When will we grow up?

Manu - Wake Up And Smell The Coffee

With Or Without The West

For 60 years, India has managed, in spite of the West. India’s defense production, its nuclear program or its space program and its India’s software success are homegrown. As are its successes in industry, stockmarkets, education, films and television programming, its democracy and the rise of its middle class. In the nuclear industry, India’s thorium approach to nuclear energy design will possibly open new realms in nuclear arena. At various times, when India has been stuck, it has been the West that has pushed India further into a corner. Even in matters of foodgrain, when India was a user of PL-480 grain. Or for instance, the Kaveri jet engine or the cryogenic engines.

While our Manubhai is chasing the chimera of Western approval and panting and drooling to ’sit at the high table in the global comity of nations,’ the back yard, Manubhai is burning.

India! Wake up and smell the coffee.

Elephants In The Room

Elephants In The Room

Two Elephants In The Room

Most analysis fail to mention, detect (or is it mislead) the role of slavery and colonies – the twin-elephants in the Western history room. The very basis of post-medieval West has been slavery and colonialism.

Western propaganda has made slavery, an invisible factor in their ‘success.’ And they are on the half way mark, on the erasure in popular memory, about the use of colonies for Western enrichment.

On the other hand, there are those who allege, that Westernization has progressed the world. Take Theodore Von Laue’s essay (author of The World Revolution Of Westernization) which is inspired

“by a humane and compassionate vision which most academic studies lack. Indeed, his study was motivated by his concern about contemporary sectarian strife, interstate conflicts, ecological disasters, superpower rivalry, and anti Western movements mired in nostalgia and resentment”.

The Mystery of the Dying Detective

Between 1800-1950, Western powers killed (directly or otherwise) more than 50 million people in America (the Native Americans), Africa (the Native Africans), Asia (Indians, Chinese, Arabs). This led to a situation that every other person in the West had participated in murder or massacre.

Western ambiguity towards Soviet Russia on one side, Hitler on the other – and to that add, Gandhiji’s resolute opposition to colonialism – and you have a inflammable moral situation. This moral anxiety was directly reflected in popular fiction as the detective fiction genre.

The deluge of blood and murder caused moral anxiety and was a matter of ethical dilemma amongst common folks. The pressure valve for this was popular fiction. Identifying murderers became a form of proxy, vicarious entertainment for ordinary folks.

Enter the super detectives, who pick out the murderer from a room full of ordinary people. Enter detectives like Auguste Dupin, of ‘The Purloined Letter’ fame, who “investigates an apparently motiveless and unsolvable double murder in the Rue Morgue.”

From 1900-1950, the most popular form of fiction was the private detective genre. Most critics and commentators write about the phenomenon of detective fiction devoid of context – and the detective fiction as entertainment or literary device only.

After de-colonisation, as mass murder went underground, the detective-murder mystery books genre faded. This category was replaced by a new theme – the axis of corporation-government international conspiracies.

Conspiracy Theory – Full Steam Ahead

The new category of popular fiction are represented by Ian Fleming, Arthur Hailey, Frederick Forsyth, Irving Wallace, Robert Ludlum, Graham Greene, John Le Carre, et al. More and more contrived, each conspiracy theory writer has been ‘inspired’ by real life incidents.

International-conspiracy-plot-CIA-FBI-KGB series of Robert Ludlum have worn thin, the spookiness of Le Carre’s Absolute Friends and Constant Gardner still work as novels representing the West.

Media and Academia

For instance, this nearly 20-page analysis about Westernization and Modernization, mentions slave once and colonialism (related words included) twice.

H.E.Professor Dr.Kishore Mahbubani, of the National University of Singapore, Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy has recently written a book where he talks about the seven pillars of western wisdom – a cloyingly subservient and ignorant view of the modern history. This ‘respected’ commentator, Kishore Mahbubani, fatuously, talks about the seven pillars of Western success – without once mentioning slavery and colonialism.

One writer, Franco Moretti did half the job in book Signs Taken for Wonders: On the Sociology of Literary Forms By Franco Moretti. He writes,

“The perfect crime – the nightmare of detective fiction – is the feature-less, deindividualized crime that anyone could have committed because at this point everyone is the same.” He further writes,“Yet, if we turn to Agatha Christie, the situation is reversed.Her hundred-odd books have only one message: the criminal can be anyone …”

In his entire book he does not use the words like slavery, racism, genocide, bigotry even once. The 19th century, which was based on Western bigotry, White racism, Black slavery, and assorted genocides is unrecognised in Moretti’s books.

Running or hiding? Or it a case of feeling squeamish? Perhaps, a case of queasy stomach, Franco?

Another book, The Detective as Historian: History and Art in Historical Crime Fiction, by Ray Broadus Browne, Lawrence A. Kreiser does a better job. This book examines, the detective fiction genre, with some references to slavery and child prostitution.

Jerome Delamater, Ruth Prigozy, in an essay compilation, ‘Theory and Practice of Classic Detective Fiction’, observe that Jane Marple, along with Hercule “Poirot becomes an equal opportunity detective who really believes that anyone might commit murder”.

Dismissing the “jaundiced view of human nature,” the writers of this book, while commenting about the detective fiction genre, do not mention slavery at all – and mention colonialism and racism once each.

End Of Slavery

Western media today glosses over Western record of slavery and colonialism. This ‘collective amnesia’ about the past is widespread and blatant. Other writers forget about the causes leading to abolition of slavery. Seminal events in Haiti, Cuba, Caribbean are ignored, white-washed or brushed under the carpet.

Black emancipation in the USA is a 1970s phenomenon, 30+ years ago event – and not 200 years ago as this article in New York Times seems to make out.

One is from a member of the US Conservative Right, part of the Republican propaganda team – aapla, our own Dinesh DeSouza. He tries, speciously and very hard, to show how it is the White, Christian, Americans who actually freed the slaves – after the slaves were sold into slave by their Black Brothers. Of course, he cannot see the long history of trade in slaves, the laws and might of the state which enforced this trade, the continuing attempts (under disenfranchisement laws) to deny Blacks, their voting rights. Dinesh does a fabulous hatchet job on how the West can make me a colonial subject of the Raj again.

Another blog, by an academic, celebrates a pseudo-anniversary. This post, ‘a professor at a large state university,’ abandons academic integrity to promote propaganda, instead of academic excellence. At least, he published dissenting comments. Bro.Dinesh DeSouza does not publish dissenting comments.

Or for this matter this book review in The Times (from London) about slavery – which doesn’t once mention the one reason, why slavery was abolished – Haiti and slave revolts in the Caribbean.

What most of this coverage of mainline and popular press fail to mention is the determined Black struggle for overthrow of slavery. Between 1789-1833, more than 20 slave rebellions occurred in the Caribbean – one every 2 years. It were these slave revolts that ‘persuaded’ the West to abolish slavery. In the USA, about 200 slave uprising and revolts occurred in the USA before the Civil War.

Another aspect which is not mentioned is the significant reason for unpopularity of slavery in the US North. The reason was the depressing effect of slavery on wages and employment. Poor (free) whites had to compete with slave labour for employment – and that was a non-starter.

Birth Of Freedom – Haiti

The USA and the West has been at war (or by proxy) with the Black Republics of Haiti, Cuba, Greneda for the last 200 years. Fuelled by a desperate desire to show White superiority. By a need to white wash history. To hide the origins of their misbegotten wealth – built on the foundation of the skeletons of dead and surviving slaves.

Haiti gave the world freedom. Not America – which claims itself to be a land of the free (as long as you are white). For this reason, Haiti must now be protected – by the rest of the world. Make Haiti a UN protectorate. All the superpowers to be forced to declare Haiti as off limits.

Haiti must succeed.

Similar campaigns by paid Western hacks have distorted analysis on population studies and environment.

The Importance Of Being Earnest

With nearly 190 sovereign nations in the world, with large income disparities, political disequilibrium, there is a crying need for an objective analysis of what works, successful national models, productive economic modelling which can serve as templates.

Western intellectual and military aggression, at times distorts this analysis – and raises questions regarding intentions and objectives.