India – The Perfect Storm Ahead
Till such time that India cannot fight 10-year-war, India will remain a soft state. India – The Perfect Storm Ahead.
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Increasing gap. Back to bad ole’ days. Image credits & sources embedded
Stormy weather
India’s has three strategic problems. All three are known problems. This post looks at how the three could mesh and create a ‘perfect’ storm.
Oil’s not well
One is clearly oil. India imports 70%-80% of its oil consumption. Too much of our exports are used for oil imports. This makes India prone to economic pressures.
We would do well to remember Bombay High (1973). Only after Bombay High could India detonate the atom bomb (1974), throw out IBM and Coke (1977). Bombay High also saw India’s break away from our colonial ‘heritage’ of hunger, poverty, shortages, disease, social ossification.
Where India gets its oil from?
After recent discoveries at Krishna-Godavari basin, by Cairn oil, GSPC production, will possibly account for 30% of Indian demand. The 70% imports-dependence mark won’t be broken. But import-dependence is unlikely to come down much.
The answer to reliable oil imports are countries with low domestic-demand, low exploration-profile and low current-production. That means Africa, coastal and island nations in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans, countries in Central Asia. With populations of 20-50 million these countries, fit the profile. ONGC’s global expansion remains hostage to short-term actions.
For want of a nail
The second major issue remains defense prepared-ness. With aircraft, aircraft-carriers, howitzers – all imported, many from Western sources (including Israel). India will be seen seeking spares parts within 15 days of any conflict. India is not prepared for a ‘peak’ fighting situation beyond 15 days.
Increasing amount of Indian exports going towards oil imports. Image and data sources & credit embedded.
India’s defence purchases of US$50 billion in the last 10 years gets us toothless, stuffed tigers – which can at best intimidate a small warlord.
It’s the economy, stupid
The third issue is closely related to the first – oil. India’s current account deficit (imports-exports=current acount deficit) is currently gap-filled by FDI+FII+expat inflows. Combine the current account deficit with above two factors, and we find India in a poker-game with a bad hand of cards. Though the less-than-US$40-billion current account deficit is small beer for now, things could change. Especially in case of a prolonged war.
These structural issues became apparent within 10-12 years after Bombay High – by 1985. These three issues have remained unaddressed, by India, now for the last 25 years.
War stories
Energy concerns: An ONGC offshore platform. India is seeking to reduce dependence on imports as production from domestic fields declines. Bloomberg
India’s position in the 1971 Bangladesh War was superior, as our defence and oil supplies, were in the hands of a reliable ally – Soviet Russia. This time we have no such comfort.
In WW2, Hitler could not make the final assault on Moscow, as his armies were split to capture Romanian oil fields, which finally did not happen. Stranded in the Russian winter, without oil, at the gates of Moscow, the oil shortages defeated the Germans. In Africa, Rommel’s tanks were sitting ducks without oil.
Instead of fighting the Americans in the Pacific, the Japanese Imperial Navy was busy escorting oil in sea-lanes across Pacific and Indian oceans.
The Allies, on the other hand, had Middle East oil – in addition to the huge American domestic production.
Dassault Rafale
This time it is war
Any conflict will see an immediate withdrawal of FII, triggering GOI caps and restrictions, leading to stoppage of FDI/FII inflows. Rupee devaluation of 40%, meaning Rs.70 to US$ is the probable outcome. Export production will be affected due to oil shortages, further widening current account deficit.
Blowing in the wind
Till such time that India cannot fight a war for 10 years, India will remain a ‘soft state’.
Even a simple increase in indigenous oil production may be of very little help. A few missile attacks on Bombay High and Jamnagar will see India in the Stone Age – our meaningless treaties notwithstanding.
This also is a powerful argument against the Ultra-Mega-Power-Project (UMPP) strategy of the GOI. Instead of the UMPPs, what India needs is small, micro oil-wells, refineries and power plants – combined with indigenous oil production from small, distributed oil wells, refineries and power plants. Thousands of them. A smart indigenization program of defence industry will do the rest.
Sabsa bada rupaiya
This will attract the usual argument of cost.
Having made no efforts in this direction, also means that we will have no cost-estimates, solutions or technology. Having opted and continued with the practice of importing ‘mega’ technologies from the West, a la Middle-East oil potentates, cannot be the answer. Not after 60 years of the Indian Republic. For proof, witness the pride behind Jamnagar complex. Concerted actions on these three parameters will mean some real security.
For the aam aadmi !
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2ndlook 
India’s soft democracy will stay till the Nrhru-Gandhi dynasty rule will persist. Indians are a bunch of high speed ideologues, having no basic concepts yet they are speech masters. They are still a mental slave and want to continue into it with their ignorant stupid pride.
West pampers them with, “India is a largest democracy in world; Indians pride in 5000 yrs old culture and civilisation as Swapan Dasgupta put it lamentingly”. In their humiliating mental
shackles of continuing Macaulayism, somebody else is making money at their ignorance and false pride.
Like the West, until the Indians start looking into the real business of managing the state affairs, the country will keep suffering with perpetual poverty, hunger, international indignation. Any transaction of money has to be seen in the light of business. Without money, there can not be a business. Without money, there can not be “Roti, Kapada aur Makaan” for the “Aam Aadami”.
What do they want to indicate by this silly slogan of aam aadami? The whole nation has a 1.2 billion mouths to feed and cater for. GOI makes a budget of more than one hundred thousand crores of Rupees with a rackless mindless expenditure with no clue. Look at this mess in CWG. The country is sizzling in rising prices and they have played with the money and sovereignty even by levying extra taxes on the already over burdened “Aam Aadami”.
What an international humiliation to earn in search of a false pride. Who will pay the cost in terms of money, material and pride – the Aam Aadami while the Kalmadis made their cheap business at the cost of all. This is the real business to provide for their basic needs of daily requirements; if we sidetrack the other advanced needs and the state machinery has to come down to the ground level.
I had once taken a loan from the stae financial corporation and they suddenly raised my interest rate from 12.5% to 24% and this collapsed my whole project. Then at the top of that, one day the manager remarked to me, “You are using ‘My Money (stress)’ and not repaying it back”. I was stunned to hear it but this is the colonial mindset we have in our bureaucracy and the leaders are least bothered for the “Aam Aadami”. It is one of their vote stunt. The manager’s remark was grossly misplaced. It is not his money, but the money of the tax payers on which his livelihood runs and he is a mere paid servant like one employs in their other business.
The “Government” word has to be understood as a business enterprise to cater for the “Aam Aadami”. They should take lessons from David Cameron and his gesture. He meant real business. That is why I always say, “If you want to learn business, you must associate with British”. One Brit showed that way during/by his last visit only if we learn.
Once Indians learn from these, though I doubt they will, all the points made in this post will automatically come to be realised.
Indians should encourage more foreign tours and travels to see the world and get a glimpse of other people and nations. This may widen the outlook and GOI should establish official Indian guest houses and other facilities to encourage the tours. They should be afforded the needed assistance for such visits to combine them into business entourage. This will make it viable proposition too. Until that time, India will be misused by paying bribes to the local leaders at the cost of “Aam Aadami”but at the behest of a few elites in the capitals.
India has plenty of work force, plenty of geniouses, plenty of money, and so also plenty of corruption and babudom. Until this corruption god is eliminated, nothing can be achieved. Less one say, better it is until it is heeded.
God bless
Dr. O. P. Sudrania
Rather than bumping up oil production, another solution would be to go totally off it. GoI must invest in the thorium based fuel cycle, go totally nuclear in terms of power production.
For vehicular fuel, we must invest in hydrogen fuel cell technologies. All easier said than done, but reliance on oil might prove difficult in the long run with population growth projected to continue until 2050 and thusly, oil demand to increase at least until then and even beyond as per capita incomes in India would grow. How much should we produce? Going off oil instead would free up so much arm space for the motherland.
Besides, this will also have advantage in security issues, as we will stop funding ME nations that are supporting the abominable monster to our north – west and also funding madrassas in India.
Both solutions will take time. India has been looking for Thorium reactors for a long while. We have a test reactor but we are at least 15 years away from rolling that out (we are actually ahead of everyone in Thorium reactor research). And roll out should take another 20 years.
Mobile Fuel cells are still in research stage and at least 10-15 years from being productionized. Replacing the cars on road are another 15 years away from there on.
What do we do in the meantime?
Obviously, answers cannot be overnight. A beginning has to be made somewhere. It has been 35 years since Bombay High. Thorium is at least 20-30 years away (covered in some of my other posts).
I would go with millions of of small distributed private power plants using co-gen plants –
1. Organic waste that turns out methane – used for organic manure in agriculture; reduce dependence on artificial fertliliser.
2. Small solar plants that supply marginal electricity for turning hot water to steam.
3. Small windmills that supply some electricity – for turning hot water to steam..
4. Jatropha for bio-diesel – for turning hot water to steam.
5. Trap waste heat from air-conditioning to build further steam capacity.
Assuming 1 million of these co-gen centres, at a cost of Rs.10,00,000 we are talking of 100,000 crores over 20 years. The big advantage is that these million co-gen plants will turn out electricity at close to zero costs.
These can be synced with existing and sanctioned UMPPs, hydro-electric sources, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants.
I am glad that you are waking up to see the real stark problems India faces…
…even without a perfect storm – each of these separately are going to be hard to weather
I completely disagree with ‘real stark problems India faces’ position, statement or idea.
All these problems have been a part of India for the last 20-60 years. So I would heavily discount fears about India’s ability to handle these.
In all this analysis, I have not mentioned three counter-factors: –
1. India’s economic output is vastly understated.
And the economic output of the West is hugely overstated. So, the current account deficit is not really 2%-4% but closer to 0.5%-1%, which is very manageable. A significant part of India’s Current account Deficit is also due to gold imports. And that is good.
2. The assumption that there will be war.
India’s two neighbours who have waged wars with India, Pakistan and China are nuclear and so is India. In 20th century, nuclear powers have not waged direct wars – but proxy wars. Pakistan is already doing that – before it goes up in flames, itself. China finished its proxy wars in Vietnam and Korea a long time ago.
Hence, a direct and prolonged war by these nuclear powers is a small possibility only with China. And China has not fought a prolonged, direct war in the last 60 years – in spite of all the Maoisms. The Chinese have nearly 2500 years of peaceful, non-aggressive history behind them. Why assume, fear, believe, imagine, suspect that the Chinese will change. To get some balance, you have only to see how China, then the sole super-power, stepped back from imperial designs after the voyages of Zheng-He.
China’s neighbours, the Turko-Mongols (of Chengez Khan fame) are another matter altogether – and currently pose no threat to us.
3. I don’t believe that India is ostrich-like-heads-buried-in-the-sand
Sorry to disappoint – but Indian people, society, intelligentsia, Government, bureaucracy are not ostriches.
Indian achievements and progress in the last 60 years are second to none – bar none. Such a resurgence is unprecedented in history. These three issues are old hat. The 2ndlook part is only in terms of them coming together. So, I am sure that there are good minds at work – who will weather this also.
I know this is an old post, but China DOES HAVE AN AGGRESSIVE IMPERIAL HISTORY! People mistakenly assume that China has always been a monolithic and old continuous civilization which is false if you look at their history. The Chinese even back in Ancient and medieval times aggressively expanded into various territories of barbarian nomadic pastoral tribes in Siberia and Central Asia and then attempted to subdue and control the Korea’s and Vietnam, and even Japan and Tibet; continuously throughout history, not to mention controlling other states in an imperialistic manner in their own territories during phases like the warring states period. Indeed it’s because of Chinese imperialism that throughout history Chinese civilization has had it’s dynasties overthrown and usurped by Central Asian and Siberian nomadic tribes, (of which various number of whom were White Indo-European peoples), who installed their own dynasties in turn and changed and influenced Chinese civilization in a new way, changing it from it’s previous dynasty. Chinese civilization has been bloody and not peaceful at all; the reason why they didn’t expand during Zheng He’s voyages was because they already had a adequate slave labor force in their own then empire to compensate the need for colonies and territories
The Chinese legacy of expansionism and imperialism is the reason why the Manchu’s and Mongols invaded and took over China and why the great wall was built in the first place (it’s a lie that it was a defensive wall, it was more like Hadrian’s wall in the British Isles). The four defining Chinese dynasties that laid the ground work for ancient chinese civilization, the Shang, Zhou, Qin and Tang; were all set up by non-indigenous non-Chinese, WHITE INDO-EUROPEAN PASTORAL PEOPLES FROM CENTRAL ASIA AND SIBERIA! Indeed four of the defining ancient Chinese dynasties were all set up by barbarian pastoral nomads (like White Indo-Europeans), that were threatened by Ancient Chinese expansionism into central Asia and opportunism and ecological changes in the steppes region; these barbarian pastoral peoples in turn (which would later also include the Mongols), would take over Ancient China and then install their own dynasties that would completely shift and change Chinese civilization from previous dynasties, and then gradually assimilate and disappear into the civilization they took over and invaded. These happened with the White Indo-European origin Shang, Zhou, Qin and Tang dynasties; so there was an Aryan invasion and take over of Ancient China but not India, but this is something mainstream academia will never admit or reveal to the public!
are u from iit. where did u do ur software programming.
if u r from iit. please give me list of books that they use in iit for programming.
sudrania saab
if there wont rise leaders. who love the people. not the land. there would be no future.
for
it was said
desham ante matti kaadhoyi , deshamante manusholoye
(nation doesnt mean mud, nation means people.)
all people are making negative comments on indian people and yet pretending they care about india.
if u dont like the people . u dont like india. because nation doesnt mean land . nation means people
i hope all people here will understand that.
for even those who are making comments that india should become like this or like that.
i hope you people will realise that no matter how smart u are. it doesnt matter . if u dont like the people of india . u wont help them. u cant help them.
u will only fulfill your own agendas at their expense.
samadhyayi saab/ma’m,
I am sorry that I hardly got your false pride as much as I could/not understand you. I don’t know, “What are you upto”? Instead of blurting on rhetorics, please be specific.
Do you mean that as an Indian, one should not criticise the wrong doings in/on/by Indians? What are you basking in? I lived abroad for a decade and gave up all my cosy jobs to come
home but I can not keep quite on what I feel is wrong. It may be you might be a beneficiary of these thugs. I have travelled often in the interiors of villages in India and have seen the people whom you wish to express in your misplaced Sanskritised impressive rhetoric that won’t buy “Roti, Kapadaa aur Makaan” to these hungry people. There is no doubt that half or so of India still earns only less than Rs 50/- day with a family of a good few in numbers. Our false pride do not bring any succour to them, I am affraid. I also request you to kindly revise your posts before posting for a proper legible language, no offence please.
God bless you,
Dr. O. P. Sudrania
i apologise for my misdirected comment.
Anuraag,
A few questions.
Pls can you talk about what makes you connect the Bombay High discovery with the PNE in 74. The connection could simply be temporal. In any case, it would have taken years to strategize, plan and execute the PNE and it could be that it just so happened that the Bombay high happened earlier (Yes I agree, it made us a bit less dependent but we could have imported oil from elsewhere if someone stopped us). Personally, I am not completely convinced by such casual relationships (eg. Tall men are more successful – Freakonomics didn’t convince me completely) unless there is a clear link.
I ask because the connection is very interesting if true. But should the connection also not be made to our becoming self sufficient in food before doing the PNE?
Secondly, I like the way you step back and take a broader view of history than most people do. This jives with me. Historians have generally focused on the social part of humanity. Somehow the economic & business parts seem to be missed. I’ve seen writeups that point to the economic and structural reasons for the failure of the roman empire. And see similar parallels with the various empires that rose and fell in India. And see similar parallels to the ongoing growth and development of the civilization as we know it today. You might want to consider some of those perspectives too.
Let me contradict some of the points you made and perhaps add a few. The DRDO’s effort has actually helped us to negotiate good terms with the weapons vendors. And our spares stockpiles are a bit more than 15 days. Secondly, our weapons programs are (while running late) continuing to churn out Indian designed weapons (Insas v2, Arjun, Tejas, IGMP, AWACS v2 etc., etc.,) which are fairly good. Our model of getting knowhow is accelerating our capability (Bhramos, PAKFA…). Self reliance has paid off for us. Offset investments have ensured that foreign vendors have a significant equity within India – and so they will find it tough to renege on their promises.
Our structural weakness is our infrastructure (bijlee, sadak, mfg space etc.,), our economic strength. You might want to include the implications of these.
Finally, what you describe here is one (possible) scenario. Futurists usually describe the future in multiple scenarios – What are the other (more probable) scenarios? Any thoughts?
Been there and done that.
1. Western media in 1975-78 period was very critical of India – and one of the things that they talked of was India’s comfortable position, which allowed us to to be adventurous. I especially remember an envious The Economist making this point – “The Indian Government run by the Janata Party could afford to throw out MNCs because of the comfortable foreign exchange and food situation.”
2. You must also remember that 1973 Oil Crisis changed the world for the next 30 years.
3. Dont forget how the Soviet Union shipped oil to India at low rates as Bombay High was coming on stream.
4. During the sixties, oil MNCs in India refused to put up a single rupee for exploration and share technology for exploration. It took again Soviet Russia to help us for success in Bombay High. From 90% imports, Indian Oil imports reduced to 30% after Bombay High.
5. Bombay High was discovered in 1968. Came onstream in 1974. India was too dependent on foreign aid, food imports, oil imports, expat remittances to explode a nuclear device.
The link between Pokhran and Bombay High is but obvious.
Completely true. But nobody denies food aid – even to a pariah nation. They would have made us beg harder. That is all. Not denied food aid. I have linked in blog about how Indira Gandhi begging US for food aid – and Lyndon Johnson acting pricey.
I think you will find more on what you are saying in my post of two years ago. Click on this link here.
Actually even this scenario is something that is hard to create. It took me some effort to see a collapse situation. I cannot really see any major problems in India. That is anything that the mass media drones about.
Sure India has problems – but I cannot see anything that can raise existential questions. Maybe, I am being blind-sided!
It would be good if some of the readers raise some of these issues (And no don’t talk about hunger, poverty, literacy, disease, corruption stories. I have already dealt with these issues).
I have written more on about how India’s infrastructure story misses the point completely.
1.How come Indians are not wanting skyscrapers?
2.Learning to live with hawkers
3.Mukesh Ambani weighs in on taxi drivers’ side. Infrastructure for the poor – III
4.Remember the ragpicker. Infrastructure for the poor – II
5.Infrastructure for the poor? What’s that!!
6.Nilekani to head Unique Database Authority, gets Cabinet rank – The Economic Times
A lot of our problems have to do with the fact that there are 1.2 billion of us. Because of laissez faire policies of the government, no one addressed the issue of population explosion in the 50s, 60s and 70s. Industry stalwarts such as JRD tata who had the ear of JN Nehru and Indira Gandhi did make efforts to appeal to them but these issues did not get much traction with them. Sanjay Gandhi tried in repulsive ways and the baby was thrown out with the bathwater. Today, people like Nilekani talk about population dividend without putting too much thought into it.
Anyway, our food, energy and security needs are going through the roof. We need to be self reliant, but that is now a tough ask. It will take tremendous innovations in the area of energy if self reliance is to be achieved. Clearly, relying on oil has been a disastrous path, yet we cannot give up in the next 20 years. The sooner we can start harvesting nuclear energy, the better. It may also speed up adoption of electric energy for transportation needs.
I believe we need strong visionary leaders who think beyond the silly economic policies and models preached by the west. Cars are one of the most inefficient means of transport, instead of pushing more cars into already choking city streets we need to develop and invest on public transport infrastructure (light rail, buses etc…). This will also cut down our oil import bill. But unfortunately our policies (like that of most countries) are geared towards enriching corporations. Guess the current political system will not allow a visionary leader to survive for too long.
Thinking through these Cuba comes to my mind, its one country which seems to have survived well, not giving into the western powers, and surviving on its own after the collapse of Soviet Union. Cubans may not be very rich, but have an excellent health care system, and seem to do a good job at providing for basic requirements to all its citizens. Maybe that’s the reason Castro is usually projected in bad light in western media.
Our exports are also unsustainable. The + trade balance is coming from selling our family silver – ores, natural gas, diamonds (yes that too – explore Dantewada) and other non renewables.
All of us can amass money by selling our organs – kidney, cornea etc. That is exactly what is happening to India. Pretty dangerous because they are being sold at dirt cheapa prices (handlers give bribes to their folks and assets in Indian govt).
Point to ponder
We have a negative trade balance – Current Account Deficit (CAD). Our exports are lesser than imports. India’s CAD is now expected at about 3.5 of GDP in nominal terms and about 1% in PPP terms. Instead of 4.5% as it was feared at one point in the first half of the year. That was looking real bad. But … Then, now we are at a much better 3.5% of GDP.
Of the US$200 billion of exports expected this year, some US$60 billion will come from software alone. India is a major diamond cutting centre – for the last 2000 years at least. Indians were monopoly suppliers of diamonds till 19th century. But currently, India imports, cuts, re-exports.
We are a a major pharma exporter. We are a major processor for gems and jewelry. Rubber, tea, coffee, spices, fruits, engineering goods, leather, cotton, textiles and apparels, are all renewable, value-added products – and significant exports from India.
India’s iron ore exports are negligible in the export basket – though, why we should export ores at all, is something that beats me. India’s Wootz steel was a world leader for 3000 years – found in Tutankhamen’s tomb (to be confirmed). The other part of exports which are a concern are chemicals. Chemical production at significant pollution, environmental hazard is a bad idea.
Natural gas – India imports.
Nett, nett, our export basket is well-constructed.
It is our import basket, which is problem – especially our dependence on oil and defence purchases.
I sometimes wonder if a lot of what happening is not on our trade balance sheet – Yes on paper software is our big export, however, if you visit Dantewada you will find out that diamonds are being mined there, off the record. Big firms like Debeers are involved in this racket. Why India on surface is a net importer is a very interesting thing. Likewise with parts of Andhra – especially the basin area.
Likewise, our thorium reserves (sands of Kerela) are being smuggled out at a pretty fast pace.
Technically, you are right.
It may be worth exploring what the actual extraction of resources from India is.
Iron-ores are being exported primarily to China (if I am not mistaken). This is part of the deal between SG & China. SAIL sometime back had a shortage of ores while we were exporting at dirt cheap rates.
It may be worth studying who owns the MOUs to our mines. An investigation of the various Shell companies fronting would be valuable.
DeBeers has a prospecting and exploration licence for diamonds in Central India and some precious gems in Andhra.
Even if DeBeers were to find new diamond deposits, I doubt if they will commercialize these finds. Diamond markets (USA Europe, Japan) are at the cusp of a demand meltdown. DeBeers, Argyle, and others have excess diamonds. The prices in the markets are artificially propped up. Has to breakdown, soon.
It is a measure of DeBeers PR media blackout that in the naxal problem, the name of DeBeers never comes up.
Thorium technology is as yet only an experimental technology – and currently Thorium extraction is limited to prospecting, exploration and R&D.
Exporting iron ore, I don’t understand. Even exporting steel slabs should be limited. We should be catering to value-added (components for) end-products.
Remember, India has been always a value-added and renewable economy. Instead of kill-and-eat (non-veg) food chain, we are a grow-and-eat (veg) system.
The Ikshvaaku clan of Raghu Ramchandra was honored as they pioneered sugarcane (eekh=sugarcane) cultivation. For domesticating cattle (Krishna Yadu) and inventing irrigation, plowing (Balarama Yadu) are in the Vishnu dashavatara pantheon.
The software success of India is also on the same lines. The bad news on the software front, is how we depend on USA, UK – English-speaking markets for business. Japan, China, Africa, Francophone economies, Spanish speaking countries are pretty much untapped.
Reblogged this on Hindu Internet Defence Force.